Statewide rentals · 2028
+14.1%
Modeled increase in total property tax on residential rentals if millage is raised to replace lost revenue. Non-school liability would be up about 22.6%.
Ballot · November 3, 2026 · 60% required · CS/HJR 1F
Florida Amendment 3: what it means for rental owners
Homestead owners may see a larger exemption. Landlords do not. Whether a Central Florida rental tax bill goes up depends on whether counties and cities raise millage to fill the hole — an assumption in the Walczak model, not a guarantee.
· · Figures retrieved 2026-10-18 · Primary sources linked next to every figure.
Neutral explainer. The Pinellas County Property Appraiser does not support or oppose the amendment; neither does this page.PCPAO Amendment 3 FAQs ·Walczak (September 2026) ·Florida Division of Elections ·Rental-owner FAQ
Single-family rental
$1,081
Average additional 2028 tax (14.6%). Rises to $1,471 (15.4%) in 2031 in the same model.
Apartment unit
$406
Average additional 2028 tax (14.8%). $554 (15.7%) in 2031.
What the amendment does
- Raises the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 beginning January 1, 2027 and $250,000 beginning January 1, 2028, then indexes the amount to CPI starting January 1, 2029. (PCPAO)
- Leaves a $25,000 homestead exemption for school millages, consistent with current law. School taxes are not cut by the larger homestead exemption. (PCPAO)
- People who are not Florida residents on December 31, 2026 start at a $50,000 non-school homestead exemption (CPI-adjusted beginning 2028) and become eligible for the larger exemption beginning January 1 of the fifth year after maintaining a Florida homestead for four years. (PCPAO)
- Lowers the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. That cap applies to assessed value for non-school taxes only. School taxes on non-homestead property remain based on just/market value. (PCPAO)
- Does not eliminate Save Our Homes (3% or CPI, whichever is less) and does not change portability, widow/widower, senior, veteran, or disability exemptions. (PCPAO)
- Takes effect January 1, 2027 if at least 60% of voters approve it on November 3, 2026. Current law stays in force unless that happens. (PCPAO)
Current homestead (tax year 2026), for comparison
PCPAO: up to $51,411 on non-school millages ($25,000 on all millages including school, plus $26,411 more on non-school millages after DOR’s CPI adjustment).Source.
What it does not do for a rental
No homestead exemption
A tenant-occupied house, duplex, or apartment community is non-homestead. The $150,000 / $250,000 figures are not a discount on your assessed value. PCPAO: non-homestead examples include rental property.
The 5% cap is not a tax cut
The assessment limit would fall from 10% to 5% for non-school assessed value. School taxes stay on just/market value. PCPAO: a lower cap “may slow future assessed value growth” and “does not” by itself mean lower tax bills if millage rises. Source.
School millage is untouched
Only the first $25,000 of a homestead stays exempt from school taxes. Walczak includes school taxes in the baseline when he reports percent increases, which is why 14.1% total can sit next to 22.6% non-school. Walczak Table 2 note.
I-4 county impact (Walczak Table 4, tax year 2028)
Average additional annual property tax per unit if governments adopt a revenue-neutral millage increase, capped at 10 mills for counties and municipalities. Figures cover county, municipal, and special-district taxes. School millage is unchanged by the amendment but is in the baseline used for the percent.
All nine counties below are published in Table 4. Table 4 percents are whole numbers. Statewide Table 4 averages are $406 / 15% (apartments) and $1,081 / 15% (single-family rentals); Table 2’s more precise percents are 14.8% and 14.6%.Source: Walczak Table 4.
| County | Apartment unit | Apt % | Single-family rental | SFR % | Pages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake County | $465 | 28% | $1,476 | 27% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Volusia County | $497 | 25% | $1,444 | 26% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Pinellas County | $549 | 19% | $1,350 | 18% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Osceola County | $394 | 17% | $1,319 | 19% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Seminole County | $567 | 23% | $1,196 | 23% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Hillsborough County | $560 | 19% | $1,114 | 19% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Brevard County | $341 | 21% | $944 | 24% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Polk County | $365 | 19% | $876 | 21% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
| Orange County | $307 | 11% | $780 | 11% | Amendment 3 · Millage |
Highest modeled SFR dollar increase among these counties: Lake County, $1,476 (27%). Highest apartment percent: Lake, 28%. Lowest of both in this set: Orange County ($307 / 11% apartments; $780 / 11% SFR).
I-4 cities in Walczak Table 5
Same 2028 backfill model, selected municipalities. Lake County and Volusia County have no city in Table 5; we are not filling that gap with estimates.
| Municipality | County | Apartment unit | Apt % | Single-family rental | SFR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa | Hillsborough | $758 | 18.88% | $1,329 | 17.82% |
| St. Petersburg | Pinellas | $651 | 19.9% | $1,282 | 18.45% |
| Orlando | Orange | $358 | 11.84% | $936 | 10.84% |
| Winter Park | Orange | $368 | 11.88% | $1,572 | 11.05% |
| Lakeland | Polk | $381 | 18.38% | $820 | 20.24% |
| Bartow | Polk | $358 | 22.62% | $908 | 24.85% |
| St. Cloud | Osceola | $488 | 25.92% | $1,979 | 29.82% |
| Oviedo | Seminole | $1,070 | 29.64% | $2,214 | 29.78% |
| Sanford | Seminole | $502 | 21.68% | $1,106 | 20.75% |
| Palm Bay | Brevard | $499 | 27.3% | $1,412 | 31.19% |
Lake County has no municipality in Walczak Table 5. Volusia County has no municipality in Walczak Table 5. Walczak Table 5.
Statewide tax shift (Table 1, 2028)
If localities backfill, homestead net taxes fall about $6.45 billion while non-homestead residential taxes rise about $3.47 billion and other property (commercial, industrial, business personal property) rises about $2.65 billion. About $0.34 billion is unrecovered because of 10-mill caps (96.1% of the $250,000-exemption cost could be recovered with rate increases).Walczak Table 1.
REC fiscal cost cited by Walczak: $4.93 billion in the first year, $8.71 billion by FY 2029, $11.83 billion a year by FY 2032.Florida Revenue Estimating Conference, Homestead Exemption Increases; Assessment Increase Limitation 10% to 5% (July 10, 2026).
Assumption, not a prediction
Walczak models a revenue-neutral millage increase (limited by the 10-mill county and municipal caps). Local governments could instead cut spending, raise other fees, or use a mix. These figures are not a forecast that every county will raise rates.
PCPAO is explicit that millage is set annually by taxing authorities, that TRIM’s “rolled-back” column can become a “rolled-up” rate if taxable value falls, and that non-ad valorem assessments can change separately. Homestead exemptions do not reduce non-ad valorem assessments.PCPAO.
Walczak also notes some governments are already discussing fees (St. Petersburg fire assessment; Tampa fees; Apopka millage above rolled-back). Those are news citations in his paper, not I-4 Rental Truth measurements. Walczak p. 1, note 1.
Calendar
- Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Constitutional amendments need 60%. PCPAO · Division of Elections.
- If it passes: effective January 1, 2027; first TRIM notices August 2027; tax bills November 2027. PCPAO.
- Walczak’s fully-phased homestead year in the backfill tables is tax year 2028.
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